Judging Debacle in Pairs Figure Skating

Evidence of block voting by judges at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City led to the awarding of Gold Medals to both a Russian and a Canadian pair. It also prompted calls for a fairer judging system that could monitor and correct for judge bias.

An enterprising science reporter for the Toronto, Canada, Globe and Mail, Stephen Strauss, contacted Marilyn Looney ("Figure Skating Fairness", RMT 10:2, p. 500). The result was a feature article on page F6, Feb. 16, 2002, with the headline: "New scoring system would have iced the gold for the Canadians."

It continued:
"It's the eternal question when it comes to skating competitions: Can the bias of judges be detected and eliminated? Stephen Strauss finds that something called the Rasch measurement may do the trick."

Here are some Rasch-related excerpts:
"Looney reported that in a Rasch-adjusted universe second-place winner [in 1994] American Nancy Kerrigan should have beaten out Ukrainian Oksana Baiul for the gold medal."

"`The outcome could have been adjusted for judges' severity in real time after all the scores were in. We do it all the time in educational testing,' says Mary Lunz of Measurement Research Associates, a Chicago company that uses the Rasch approach in medical certifications."

"In answer to the question of what a Rasch-type analysis would have meant for the Salt Lake City Olympics, John Michael Linacre, a U.S. statistician who was Looney's consultant for the earlier work, has done a simple computation of the `prejudice pattern' at work in the judging. ... `You can see there is a block vote by four judges and it is also surprising to see that the Polish and the Ukrainian judges were more lenient on the Russians than their own skaters,' Linacre says. ... And what would a program that adjusted for human error -- either intended or accidental -- have produced in medal rankings? `Thought you would ask this. Yes, a Canadian victory,' says Linacre ... But maybe not, other statisticians say."

Perhaps the "other statisticians" are correct, but the Figure is a factor plot of bias patterns across the 9 judges, in which the Russian, Ukrainian, French and Polish judges share rating patterns, particularly contrasting to those of the Canadian and German judges. This plot, which Strauss saw, is the result of a preliminary analysis employing Facets, Winsteps and Systat. The major factor has a strength or eigenvalue of 3.8, the minor factor one of 1.7. In general, independent judging should not produce eigenvalues above about 1.4.

Judge bias patterns (preliminary results)
Judge bias patterns (preliminary results)

Since then, Marilyn Looney has been interviewed by reporters for newspapers, radio and TV. Other Rasch practitioners have also been contacted.

One reporter asked, "What can you conclude from these findings - that is, they don't `prove' collusion, right?" He's right. Statistical methods can't prove causality, but they can point out patterns and trends that merit close inspection, and can also indicate where and what remedial actions may be needed.

Further analysis, prompted by reporter questions, has revealed other bias patterns among the judges. The plot is thickening!

If you wish to do your own analysis, the complete set of judge ratings can be found at www.icecalc.com.

John M. Linacre


Judging Debacle in Pairs Figure Skating Linacre, J.M. … Rasch Measurement Transactions, 2002, 15:4 p. 839-840



Rasch-Related Resources: Rasch Measurement YouTube Channel
Rasch Measurement Transactions & Rasch Measurement research papers - free An Introduction to the Rasch Model with Examples in R (eRm, etc.), Debelak, Strobl, Zeigenfuse Rasch Measurement Theory Analysis in R, Wind, Hua Applying the Rasch Model in Social Sciences Using R, Lamprianou El modelo métrico de Rasch: Fundamentación, implementación e interpretación de la medida en ciencias sociales (Spanish Edition), Manuel González-Montesinos M.
Rasch Models: Foundations, Recent Developments, and Applications, Fischer & Molenaar Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests, Georg Rasch Rasch Models for Measurement, David Andrich Constructing Measures, Mark Wilson Best Test Design - free, Wright & Stone
Rating Scale Analysis - free, Wright & Masters
Virtual Standard Setting: Setting Cut Scores, Charalambos Kollias Diseño de Mejores Pruebas - free, Spanish Best Test Design A Course in Rasch Measurement Theory, Andrich, Marais Rasch Models in Health, Christensen, Kreiner, Mesba Multivariate and Mixture Distribution Rasch Models, von Davier, Carstensen
Rasch Books and Publications: Winsteps and Facets
Applying the Rasch Model (Winsteps, Facets) 4th Ed., Bond, Yan, Heene Advances in Rasch Analyses in the Human Sciences (Winsteps, Facets) 1st Ed., Boone, Staver Advances in Applications of Rasch Measurement in Science Education, X. Liu & W. J. Boone Rasch Analysis in the Human Sciences (Winsteps) Boone, Staver, Yale Appliquer le modèle de Rasch: Défis et pistes de solution (Winsteps) E. Dionne, S. Béland
Introduction to Many-Facet Rasch Measurement (Facets), Thomas Eckes Rasch Models for Solving Measurement Problems (Facets), George Engelhard, Jr. & Jue Wang Statistical Analyses for Language Testers (Facets), Rita Green Invariant Measurement with Raters and Rating Scales: Rasch Models for Rater-Mediated Assessments (Facets), George Engelhard, Jr. & Stefanie Wind Aplicação do Modelo de Rasch (Português), de Bond, Trevor G., Fox, Christine M
Exploring Rating Scale Functioning for Survey Research (R, Facets), Stefanie Wind Rasch Measurement: Applications, Khine Winsteps Tutorials - free
Facets Tutorials - free
Many-Facet Rasch Measurement (Facets) - free, J.M. Linacre Fairness, Justice and Language Assessment (Winsteps, Facets), McNamara, Knoch, Fan

To be emailed about new material on www.rasch.org
please enter your email address here:

I want to Subscribe: & click below
I want to Unsubscribe: & click below

Please set your SPAM filter to accept emails from Rasch.org

www.rasch.org welcomes your comments:

Your email address (if you want us to reply):

 

ForumRasch Measurement Forum to discuss any Rasch-related topic

Go to Top of Page
Go to index of all Rasch Measurement Transactions
AERA members: Join the Rasch Measurement SIG and receive the printed version of RMT
Some back issues of RMT are available as bound volumes
Subscribe to Journal of Applied Measurement

Go to Institute for Objective Measurement Home Page. The Rasch Measurement SIG (AERA) thanks the Institute for Objective Measurement for inviting the publication of Rasch Measurement Transactions on the Institute's website, www.rasch.org.

Coming Rasch-related Events
Oct. 4 - Nov. 8, 2024, Fri.-Fri. On-line workshop: Rasch Measurement - Core Topics (E. Smith, Winsteps), www.statistics.com
Jan. 17 - Feb. 21, 2025, Fri.-Fri. On-line workshop: Rasch Measurement - Core Topics (E. Smith, Winsteps), www.statistics.com
May 16 - June 20, 2025, Fri.-Fri. On-line workshop: Rasch Measurement - Core Topics (E. Smith, Winsteps), www.statistics.com
June 20 - July 18, 2025, Fri.-Fri. On-line workshop: Rasch Measurement - Further Topics (E. Smith, Facets), www.statistics.com
Oct. 3 - Nov. 7, 2025, Fri.-Fri. On-line workshop: Rasch Measurement - Core Topics (E. Smith, Winsteps), www.statistics.com

 

The URL of this page is www.rasch.org/rmt/rmt154a.htm

Website: www.rasch.org/rmt/contents.htm